Global oil demand improves but slowdown still forecast for 2017: IEA

11 February, 2017, 00:48 | Author: Elaine Woods
  • Global oil demand improves but slowdown still forecast for 2017: IEA

Oil jumped as the International Energy Agency said OPEC had achieved record initial compliance of 90 percent with their cuts agreement, while demand grew faster than expected. Saudi Arabia, the IEA said, appeared to cut more than was agreed on at the meeting with some key non-OPEC members in November. At the same time, OPEC's production cut overall was partly offset by growing deliveries of Libya and Nigeria not required to cut production according to the agreement terms.

The IEA increased its estimates of 2016 world oil demand growth for a third month, and boosted its outlook for 2017, anticipating an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day this year. "Non-OPEC members have also started cutting output and we hope they will quickly get to the figures they have committed to reach", he said.

US oil production rose to an average 8.9 million bpd last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, partly on the backs of sale producers.

The oil market would be re-balanced when global inventories, now near record highs, approached their five-year average level, Al Sada said.

Russian Federation said it would phase in its share of the cut gradually rather than in the first month of the agreement and in January lowered supply by 100,000 bpd. A 1.2 million barrel per day cut to OPEC production for the entire year would result in global supply of around 96 million barrels per day.

This includes about 300 million barrels from the OECD and 100 million barrels from non-OECD.

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According to oil companies and ship-tracking data, the members of the group that pledged to make cuts in Vienna two months ago have implemented 83% of those reductions on average.

Strong OPEC compliance has led to a rally in the Crude Oil market with the group's "secondary source", showing a almost 92% compliance rate from the cuts agreed upon production cuts that OPEC agreed to in late 2016.

News headlines in the oil markets were no doubt mostly bearish this week, a turnaround from what we saw at the beginning of the year when markets were still on their OPEC-induced high. This policy change was largely targeted towards ever increasing market share of the USA shale oil companies.

Zanganeh said on Tuesday that OPEC should cut crude production "a bit more" in the second half of 2017.

Moreover, Iran's output in January rose to 3.72 million bpd, up 30,000 bpd from December.

It is also expected, that around 6 percent of Chinese refining capacity would shut down at some point during the first half of the year, equivalent to around 900,000 bpd of capacity.

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