Global growth forecast revised up; to hit 3.9pc, says International Monetary Fund

23 January, 2018, 01:34 | Author: Elaine Woods
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts the economic growth at the level of 2.2 percent in the CIS region in 2018, according to the updated World Economic Outlook published January 22.

The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it expects global growth of 3.9% this year and in 2019, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the rates it predicted in October.

China, which is 2017 growth champion with a growth rate of 6.8 percent, is expected to slow down to 6.6 percent in this year and 6.4 percent next year.

The IMF revised up its growth forecast for Japan to 1.2 percent this year and 0.9 percent in 2019.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde today cautioned world leaders against being complacent about economic growth and expressed concern that some developing economies are not sharing the benefits of their growth.

The body also said recently-implemented U.S. tax cuts would stimulate growth, adding 1.2% to the world's biggest economy by 2020 - though due to the temporary nature of the some of the policies it would lower growth from 2022 onwards.

Comparing the January report to the last outlook, released back in October 2017, the new edition took into account the increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved USA tax policy changes.

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The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was signed into law by President Donald Trump in December, is projected to push GDP growth higher than previously expected. "This is partly because we estimate that potential global growth is now slightly below 3%, whereas actual growth in 2017 and 2018 will average 3.5%". Because too many people are still left out of this growth.

But it forecasts growth in the United Kingdom at 1.5% in each of 2018 and 2019, lagging well behind the average pace of fellow advanced economies - having led the pack as recently as 2016.

"High-frequency hard data and sentiment indicators point to a continuation of strong momentum in the fourth quarter".

The agency noted that risks to its global outlook were "broadly balanced" in the near term, but skewed to the downside in the medium term.

World trade has grown strongly in recent months, supported by a pickup in investment, particularly among advanced economies, and increased manufacturing output in Asia in the run up to the launch of new smartphone models.

"The Bank of England raised its policy rate for the first time since 2008 in view of diminishing slack in the economy and to target inflation driven by the past sterling depreciation", the Washington-based lender said in its report. Inward-looking policies, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty in some countries also pose downside risks, it said.

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