USA oil continues to fall. When will the turnaround come?

16 November, 2018, 00:59 | Author: Elaine Woods
  • Oil prices have lost a fifth of their value over the past month

Trump appeared to criticize the announcement in a Monday tweet: "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] will not be cutting oil production".

President Donald Trump put pressure on the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries not to cut supply to prop up the market.

Even as the US was planning to grant the Iran waivers, Trump was badgering other members of OPEC to boost production to make up for any loss of Iranian supply.

Prices may be oversold technically, but it's going to take a major change in the fundamentals to flip this market.

Before Wednesday's rally, prices dropped for 12 consecutive days.

"The market has cratered over the last few weeks and the pop today is related to the chatter that producers could cut up to 1.4 million bpd in 2019", said Gene McGillian, vice president of market research for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

Another reason for plummeting prices is due to Trump's consistent advocation for lower prices.

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Another large Russian oil producer, Gazprom Neft, is ready to lift output by a further 20,000-30,000 bpd this year and by 50,000 bpd next year. In July, Trump called the organization a "monopoly", warning on Twitter that "gas prices are up & they are doing little to help".

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC this week warned of a sizeable surplus at least in the first half of 2019, and possibly beyond, given the pace of growth in non-OPEC production and slower demand in heavy consumers such as China and India.

Brent prices rose 0.6 percent on Wednesday to $65.86 at 1115 GMT (6:13 a.m. EST). The talks are preliminary, and the size of the final cut will largely depend on the starting point they use, said one of the people. Output, however, rose by 127,000 bpd to 32.9 million bpd, Opec said.

Nigeria and Libya, which are exempt from the current supply limiting accord, could be included in a new agreement, two of the sources familiar with the matter said.

Oil's slide accelerated on Tuesday (Nov 13), with United States futures suffering their steepest one-day loss in more than three years due to ongoing worries about weakening global demand and oversupply. "There is a certain volatility, but the market is the market", Peskov said when asked about the Kremlin's opinion on the oil market situation.

Fear of lower demand is being driven by the strong U.S. Dollar which is making dollar-denominated crude oil very expensive for emerging market countries.

"The market now increasingly looks concerned about the prospect of too much supply", said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.

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